December 31, 2019

Books to Read While the Algae Grow in Your Fur, December 2019

Attention conservation notice: I have no taste, and no qualifications to opine about histriography and/or evolutionary biology.

Lee Goldberg, Lost Hills
Mind-candy police procedural, in exurban Los Angeles.
Edmund Russell, Evolutionary History: Uniting History and Biology to Understand Life on Earth
A plea to historians to recognize interactions between humans and other organisms as an evolutionary force affecting both sides, and therefore as a factor in human history. Russell starts off with easy cases --- the development of antibiotic resistance in bacteria and pesticide resistance in insects; industrial melanism in moths --- before going on to things like lactose tolerance in humans, the role of specific kinds of cotton in the Industrial Revolution and their development by "Amerindian" breeders, and the like. As these examples make clear, he's not very interested in human evolution in the sense of origins, though of course he acknowledges it happened. He's also not very interested in applying evolutionary ideas to the development of culture and institutions. What he does care about seems entirely sound to me, but I am not a historian and couldn't say whether he's right that it has been comparatively neglected in (e.g.) environmental history.
Disclaimer: Russell recently became a professor at CMU, in the same department where my wife teaches. If I thought his book was bad, it might be politic of me to keep quiet about it, but I honestly can't imagine I have anything to gain by writing a review like this.
Lilith Saintcrow, The Hedgewitch Queen and The Bandit King
Mind-candy fantasy, loosely based on the French monarchy immediately before absolutism. (Query: what would a fantasy novel inspired by by Lineages of the Absolutist State look like?)
Elliott Kay, Last Man Out
Mind-candy science fiction, latest in the series beginning with Poor Man's War. Probably enjoyable independently, but a bunch of developments are more satisfying if you've read all the previous volumes.
R. Jean Stevenson, Tisiphone's Quest
Mind-candy science-fantasy. It's very much mind candy (Sinister Masons IN SPAAACE!), but it's very fun, and I'd absolutely try anything else Stevenson writes. (Picked up on Walter Jon Williams's recommendation.)
Jack Vance, Planet of Adventure [= City of the Chasch (1968), Servants of the Wankh (1969), The Dirdir (1969), The Pnume (1970)]
Mind-candy: Vance's is in good form here, deploying his signature mix of adventure story, high-flown and ironical rhetoric, somewhat sardonic anthropological detachment, and romantic personal assertion in the face of indifferent cosmic vastness. (Dated gender roles are dated.)

Books to Read While the Algae Grow in Your Fur; Scientifiction and Fantastica; Pleasures of Detection, Portraits of Crime; Biology; Writing for Antiquity

Posted at December 31, 2019 23:59 | permanent link

November 30, 2019

Books to Read While the Algae Grow in Your Fur, November 2019

Attention conservation notice: I have no taste, and no expertise which entitles me to opinions about books on the factional struggles of right wing nuts, even those factions which only avoid being active fascists because they're too busy jerking off online.

Trudi Canavan, The Magicians' Guild
Lilith Saintcrow, Steelflower, Steelflower at Sea, Steelflower in Snow
Marguerite Bennett et al., Insexts vol. 2, The Necropolis
Fantasy mind-candy, assorted. The fact that I read all three Steelflower books in a row says something about their what-happens-next power; I'd have cheerfully read many more, for much the same reason I wish there were more than two Sanjuro movies.
Marie Brennan, Turning Darkness into Light
Pseudo-historical mind-candy; it's a sequel to her "Lady Trent" books, is largely about translating an ancient epic, and is more dramatic than a story about philological niceties has any right being. It's probably readable without having read the previous novels, but definitely more fun if you have.
Matthew Hughes, A God in Chains
Mind candy fantasy. Jack Vance was one of my favorite writers; unfortunately, being dead, he is no longer producing new stories. (I realize that mortality has proved no obstacle to many other writers, but Vance's talents evidently did not extend to dictation from beyond the grave.) A number of writers have attempted to channel Vance, or (even better) his spirit; of these, the best is Paula Volsky (a.k.a. Paula Brandon), who hasn't published anything since 2012. The second best Vance-channeler is Matthew Hughes, who is more faithful to the master's settings, but less good at his anthropological irony or romantic appreciation of a vaster universe. A God in Chains is essentially a perfectly good Vance novel, featuring amnesia, demonic meddling in human affairs and vice versa, and a world observed with just enough ironic detachment.
Disclaimer: I got a review copy of this book through LibraryThing.
George Hawley, Making Sense of the Alt-Right
A deliberately anti-sensationalist presentation by a dedicated student of the American right and its factions. There are some fairly consequential bits where Hawley's nothing-to-see-here tone has been overtaken by events (e.g., Stephen Miller's connections to white nationalism). I suspect this has something to do with a scholar trained in studying intellectual traditions mediated by print not quite getting how an essentially online social movement works, especially one for which ha-ha-only-serious is a basic organizing principle. Nonetheless, Hawley is good on how the alt-right continues, and grows out of, strains of American right-wing thought that were denied a place in the (formerly?) mainstream post-war conservative movement.

Books to Read While the Algae Grow in Your Fur; Scientifiction and Fantastica; Running Dogs of Reaction; Psychoceramica

Posted at November 30, 2019 23:59 | permanent link

October 31, 2019

Books to Read While the Algae Grow in Your Fur, October 2019

Attention conservation notice: I have no taste, and no qualifications to opine on the sociology of identity group boundaries, climate change, or the history of historical myths.

Rogers Brubaker, Trans: Gender and Race in an Age of Unsettled Identities [JSTOR]
Admirably summarized by a long paper, though the book has further details, amplifications, etc. §
Gilbert M. Gaul, The Geography of Risk: Epic Storms, Risings Seas, and the Cost of America's Coasts
Orrin H. Pilkey and Keith C. Pilkey, Sea Level Rise: A Slow Tsunami on America's Shores
I'll be reviewing these together for American Scientist, so no spoilers.
Update: well, that didn't happen. (My fault.) To sum up: the Pilkey and Pilkey book has some interesting information, but is very sloppily written, to the point where I found it unpleasant to slog through. (Also, the whole metaphor of a slow tsunami just doesn't work --- at least not in their hands.) Gaul's, on the other hand, is really good; he manages to combine good journalism about particular places and their histories with good explanations of the larger processes those stories illustrate. Gaul is particularly good at the perverse incentives which keep us building, and re-building ever more expensively, in coastal areas and on islands which a more rational economy would simply abandon. §
Alex Beer, The Second Rider (translated by Tim Mohr)
Mind candy mystery. At its core, it's The Third Man fanfic, but set in Vienna after the first world war. §
M. R. Carey, The Girl with All the Gifts
Mind candy, zombie-apocalypse horror; or, rather, a zombie genesis myth. (Carey knows very well what "Pandora" means.) §
Tim Pratt, The Wrong Stars
Mind candy science fiction. I wanted to like Lovecraftian space opera, but the characters all just talked and acted far, far too much like early-21st-century Americans of a certain class (namely, mine) for me to believe that they were from a few centuries from now. (Of course, the Singularity lies in our past, so a certain slow-down in the pace of cultural change I can accept, but not such stasis.) In other words, I could swallow Pratt's alien monstrosities, but not his people. §
Cynthia Eller, Gentlemen and Amazons: The Myth of Matriarchal Prehistory, 1861--1900 [JSTOR]
Eller is a historian who some time ago wrote an excellent critical work, The Myth of Matriarchal Prehistory: Why an Invented Past Will Not Give Women a Future (which among other virtues does an admirable job of summarizing its argument in its title). That book debunked the idea that there was a matriarchal, Goddess-worshiping stage to prehistory. (This is of course different from debunking the idea that goddesses have been worshiped in particular times and places, often wretchedly patriarchal ones.) This book is more explanatory and less critical, and examines where that idea came from. The answer, to summarize, is that it was dreamt up by a Swiss professor of Roman law in the 1860s, on the basis of no real evidence at all. But there are a lot of twists and turns, and it got picked up in surprising ways and taken in odd directions (not least when it was adopted by Engels, and so became part of the Marxist canon). This is a well-written book with a lot of interesting facts and interpretations to offer anyone interested in the history of all sorts of modern ideas --- about pre-history, of course, but also the ideas of anthropology and social evolution, of feminism and socialism, of religion, etc. I strongly recommend it, and hope Eller will someday write a sequel about the 20th century career of the myth. §
Walter Jon Williams, The Accidental War
Williams's Dread Empire's Fall series is really good space opera. This is the first book of a planned sequel trilogy, and a very natural continuation of the story, without being a re-tread of the first trilogy. I am well-pleased and want more. §
Sequel.
Kat Rosenfield, A Trick of Light
Mind candy SF for teens. Well-written enough that I will try Rosenfield's mysteries for adults. (I can understand why she'd want to get the hell out of YA.) §
Donald S. Lopez, Jr., The Scientific Buddha: His Short and Happy Life [JSTOR]
A brisk history, which is also a debunking, of the surprisingly wide-spread 19th/20th century idea that pure Buddhism, or what the Buddha actually taught, is a really scientific doctrine about mental health, without supernatural elements. §

Books to Read While the Algae Grow in Your Fur; Scientifiction and Fantastica; Commit a Social Science; Writing for Antiquity; Pleases of Detection, Portraits of Crime; Tales of Our Ancestors; Cthulhiana; The Continuing Crises; Psychoceramica

Posted at October 31, 2019 23:59 | permanent link

September 30, 2019

Books to Read While the Algae Grow in Your Fur, September 2019

Attention conservation notice: I have no taste, and no qualifications to discuss ancient history. Also, there's nothing like starting a new class to cut down on reading time.

Cathy O'Neil, Weapons of Math Destruction: How Big Data Increases Inequality and Threatens Democracy
This is a popular, and polemical, book about the abuses of statistical modeling and optimization in contemporary American society. It's clear, accurate (*), impassioned, and has already (since its 2016 publication) had a bit of an impact on at least academic research on these topics.
Let me indulge in the academic vice of systematizing something that doesn't really need it by imposing a number of binary distinctions on the kinds of things O'Neil discusses. On the one hand, some of them are effective for their intended purpose, and others are not; work-scheduling algorithms that make money for companies by making workers lives miserable are effective (for the companies), personality tests for job applicants are just rubbish. A cross-cutting distinction is between systems that rely on gathering extensive data and subjecting it to statistical modeling to make predictions and those which don't: the personality tests are (supposedly) relying on statistical predictions, but something like the US News and World Report ranking of colleges is just making stuff up with numbers. Finally, is the system's goal primarily to benefit those being subjected to it, or someone else? Pretty much every system O'Neil discusses is aimed at benefiting someone other than its subjects, but one could imagine a job-scheduling system which (say) tried to find workers hours which fit other demands on their time while still making sure the coffee shop had enough workers to meet customer demand. (This might involve paying people more to take bad shifts.) O'Neil's ire is mostly about the fact that the systems don't benefit those subjected to or caught up in them. Some of her criticisms are about effectiveness, but that's not really her point. If (to use one of her examples) one could come up with a system which very accurately predicted who would commit further crimes if released pending trial, based purely on their neighborhood of residence, TV shows watched, etc., O'Neil would (I think) still insist it was unjust to treat some people more harshly than others, based not on their legal record but on the conduct of those with whom they share such morally-irrelevant characteristics. If ad targeting is actually very bad at predicting what ads people will respond to, it's not clear that we should judge it more fairly.
In other words: in a lot of cases which (rightly) incense O'Neil, I can imagine replacing an elaborate statistical model with an astrologer, or a random number generator, and they'd still be outrageous. So the statistical models / big data / data mining / machine learning / "artificial intelligence" isn't really the issue; it's the (attempt at) exploitation and manipulation. Using computers is important here, because it makes exploitation and manipulation more scalable, but the use of statistical modeling is often a secondary concern, though the idea of accurate prediction may be important to the manipulation.
Disclaimer: O'Neil and I know each other slightly, and had an exchange about the distinction (if any) between "data science" and "statistics", back in the Late Bronze Age of blogging.
Addendum, January 2020: Having assigned (most) of the book to my data mining students last semester, I can say that it went over quite well, and I will be using it again when I teach the course.
*: There's a bit where she tries to explain feature selection for predictive modeling, where she glosses "taking a Bayesian approach" as ranking features by importance, which comes across confusedly, but I know she knows better, and I think attempting to explain this without math just resulted in some editing mush.
John W. Lee, The Persian Empire
Lively, modern class on the Achaemenids; good about not just taking the Greek viewpoint(s).

Books to Read While the Algae Grow in Your Fur; Enigmas of Chance; Writing for Antiquity

Posted at September 30, 2019 23:59 | permanent link

August 31, 2019

Books to Read While the Algae Grow in Your Fur, August 2019

Attention conservation notice: I have no taste, and no qualifications to say anything about cognitive science, philosophy, Marxism, intellectual history, or even, really, machinery.

Hugo Mercier and Dan Sperber, The Enigma of Reason
It is impossible for me to do justice to this extraordinarily rich book. To put it very, very crudely: Mercier and Sperber's position is that human reason did not evolve to assist us in accurately understanding the world and our place in it. Rather, reason evolved to persuade others, to justify our positions and actions to others, and to evaluate others' attempts at persuasion and justification. This, they say, makes sense out of otherwise very confusing phenomena. On the one hand, there are extremely well-documented cognitive biases, where people seem to be very bad at reasoning. On the other hand, people are much better at picking apart other people's ideas than they are at evaluating their own. (This also helps make sense of how psychologists can detect cognitive biases. [The alternative would be that psychologists are more rational than other human beings, but I daresay anyone who has met an academic psychologist can rule that out.]) Effect rationality in the honorific sense thus emerges as a social and collective property, rather than an individual one.
As I said, this is only a crude sketch of a deeply thought-out position. I have said nothing about their account of reason-the-faculty as a cognitive module acting intuitively on certain kinds of representations, for example. (Nor how it ties in to Sperber's career-long interests in meta-representation and relevance theory.) Earlier versions of Mercier and Sperber's arguments deeply influenced my work with Henry Farrell on cognitive democracy, and it's one of the sources we're drawing on (slowly) for Actually, "Dr. Internet" Is the Name of the Monsters' Creator. This is the first full-length presentation of their views, in a form which has been modified to account for (what else?) criticism. If you find anything I write which doesn't involve sigmas interesting, you should read it. §
ObLinkage 1: Precis by Mercier and Sperber.
ObLinkage 2 (2020): Henry beautifully (!) combining Mercier and Sperber with George Eliot (!).
Disclaimer: I've never met Sperber, but a chance encounter with Explaining Culture shaped me deeply; I know Mercier well enough to invite him to workshops, and he's a collaborator of collaborators.
Nancy Kress, Oaths and Miracles and Stinger
Mind-candy biomedical thrillers (1996, 1998), re-read on encountering their electronic versions. They hold up as novels, though as plausible thrillers they suffer from being pre-9/11. §
Basic Machines and How They Work [1965]
I enjoyed this tremendously, and I really wonder what the modern version must be like. §
Harry Austryn Wolfson, The Philosophy of Spinoza: Unfolding the Latent Process of His Reasoning [1934]
An attempt to show that the first philosopher of modernity actually proceeded by taking the medieval, more-or-less-Aristotlean tradition of scholastic philosophy very seriously, applying its premises and modes of argument with more rigor and consistency than it had managed. Primarily it's a reading of the Ethics, arguing that its order of exposition follows that of medieval philosophical compendia and curricula, and trying to trace premises and arguments back to predecessors. It's beyond my competence to evaluate its historical merits, but it's definitely a remarkable work of erudition in its own right. (I want to believe.) §
Sujata Massey, The Widows of Malabar Hill
Mind-candy historical mystery, set in early 20th century Bombay among the Indian elites. Enjoyable, but it made me miss my grandmother (who was a generation younger than Massey's heroine, but from a comparable background, though Christian rather than Parsi). §
Stuart Jeffries, The Grand Hotel Abyss: The Lives of the Frankfurt School
A barely-tolerable journalistic, biographical introduction to the Frankfurt School, more focused on the personalities of its thinkers (especially: Adorno, Benjamin, Fromm, Horkheimer, and Marcuse, plus Habermas) than on expounding or evaluating their ideas. (As I said: journalistic.) But, even taking that as the goal, many things about it irritated me. Jeffries is, to put it kindly, less than sure-footed when it comes to the classical Marxism which the School was shaped by and reacted against*, and not much better on the larger cultural context**. The concluding chapter about the School's contemporary relevance is, precisely, far too contemporary, and I'm sure will seem painfully dated very soon. But beyond this I suspect there was a sheer clash of temperaments between author and reader. I can't make myself recommend it, but I also can't think of anything better, at this level of popular accessibility. §
*: He badly mangles the labor theory of value and Marx's account of how wage labor under capitalism is exploitative the very first time he brings it up, for example. I quote from chapter 3: "When a chair or an iphone [sic] is sold, it is exchanged for another commodity (money for instance). The exchange takes no account of the labor that went into the chair's making, still less that, for example, of Apple's overstressed and underpaid workers". I stress that this is presented as part of an account of Marxist theories of commodity fetishism and alienation! Subsequent mentions of value are no better. If Jeffries ever read Capital I, or even Marx for Beginners, it didn't stick. (Also, no editor --- no editor at Verso --- thought this worth correcting.) In the same chapter, his account of Grossman's argument for a falling rate of profit is just a mathematical mistake (increasing the denominator of a ratio won't decrease the ratio unless the numerator also remains unchanged [or shrinks]). Not having read Grossman, I can't say whether Jeffries is faithfully (and uncritically) reproducing Grossman's mistake, or whether he's introduced a new error. --- All of which being said, the Frankfurt School thinkers Jeffries is most concerned with were notoriously detached from mere political economy. ^
**: In chapter 2, Jeffries goes on at some length about how Walter Benjamin's nostalgia was different from Proust's, because the former involved a recognition that the nostalgized past was a transient historical episode, a social formation that came into being and passed away, like all others, no matter how eternal they may seem from the inside.insidmoment. Stipulate that this is true. (I make no claims to interpreting Proust.) How is this recognition of historical transience a revolutionary Marxist act, rather than common or garden historicism, widely found in European high culture since say 1800, often on the part of reactionaries? (Of course, we call many other things "historicism" as well, but this is one of them.) To be fair, Benjamin sometimes wrote as though it were a revolutionary Marxist act, but why take him at his word?
I might also complain about the depictions of Bachofen (who thought the transition to patriarchy was an advance), of Max Weber, or indeed of multiple others, but I will just mention the account of Otto Neurath, whose life and work I know well. Neurath was one of the chief figures in the Vienna Circle and a leading thinker of Logical Positivism. Thus, per the Frankfurt School, he must have been an ideologist of capitalism. He was also a committed socialist and Marxist, who, unlike the Frankfurt Schoolers, didn't just denounce capitalism in ways no worker could understand, but thought hard about how to actually run a planned, socialist economy, actively participated in trying to do just that during the transient "Soviet Republics" in post-WWI Germany, and devoted much of his life and work to concrete projects to improve the life, including the cultural life and the social knowledge, of the working class, both in Vienna and in exile in England. If one set out to systematically create a counter-example to Frankfurt's ideas about positivism, one could hardly do better; and by Jeffries's values, as displayed in this book, Neurath is a much more admirable figure than many of the Frankfurters. This gives Jeffries absolutely no pause for thought. ^
Norman Geras, Literature of Revolution: Essays on Marxism
Well-written but now dated essays, from when Geras was a believer. Probably now only for Geras completists (like me). §

Books to Read While the Algae Grow in Your Fur; Philosophy; Minds, Brains, and Neurons; The Collective Use and Evolution of Concepts; Pleasures of Detection, Portraits of Crime; Scientifiction and Fantastica; The Progressive Forces; Tales of Our Ancestors; Writing for Antiquity; Physics

Posted at August 31, 2019 23:59 | permanent link

August 14, 2019

Course Announcement: Data Mining (36-462/662), Fall 2019

For the first time in ten years, I find myself teaching data mining in the fall. This means I need to figure out what data mining is in 2019. Naturally, my first stab at a syllabus is based on what I thought data mining was in 2009. Perhaps it's changed too little; nonetheless, I'm feeling OK with it at the moment*. I am sure the thoughtful and constructive suggestions of the Internet will only reinforce this satisfaction.

--- Seriously, suggestions are welcome, except for suggesting that I teach about neural networks, which I deliberately omitted because I am an out-of-date stick-in-the-mud reasons**.

*: Though I am not done selecting readings from the textbook, the recommended books, and sundry articles --- those will however come before the respective classes. I have been teaching long enough to realize that most students, particularly in a class like this, will read just enough of the most emphatically required material to think they know how to do the assignments, but there are exceptions, and anecdotally even some of thoe majority come back to the material later, and benefit from pointers. ^

**: On the one hand, CMU (now) has plenty of well-attended classes on neural networks and deep learning, so what would one more add? On the other, my admittedly cranky opinion is that we have no idea why the new crop works better than the 1990s version, and it's not always clear that they do work better than good old-fashioned machine learning, so there.

Corrupting the Young; Enigmas of Chance

Posted at August 14, 2019 17:17 | permanent link

August 06, 2019

Notes on "Intriguing Properties of Neural Networks", and two other papers (2014)

\[ \DeclareMathOperator*{\argmax}{argmax} \]

Attention conservation notice: Slides full of bullet points are never good reading; why would you force yourself to read painfully obsolete slides (including even more painfully dated jokes) about a rapidly moving subject?

These are basically the slides I presented at CMU's Statistical Machine Learning Reading Group on 13 November 2014, on the first paper on what have come to be called "adversarial examples". It includes some notes I made after the group meeting on the Q-and-A, but I may not have properly credited (or understood) everyone's contributions even at the time. It also includes some even rougher notes about two relevant papers that came out the next month. Presented now because I'm procrastinating preparing for my fall class in the interest of the historical record.

Paper I: "Intriguing properties of neural networks" (Szegedy et al.)

Background

Where Are the Semantics?

The Learned Classifier Isn't Perceptually Continuous

How Can This Be?

Paper II: "Deep Neural Networks are Easily Fooled: High Confidence Predictions for Unrecognizable Images" (Nguyen, Yosinski and Clune)

"Evolved images that are unrecognizable to humans, but that state-of-the-art DNNs trained on ImageNet believe with \(\geq 99.6\)% certainty to be a familiar object. ... Images are either directly (top) or indirectly (bottom) encoded."

It'd seem in-principle possible to use the technique of this paper to evolve images for maximal response from these cells, if you could get the monkey to tolerate the apparatus for long enough.

Paper III: "Visual Causal Feature Learning" (Chalupka, Perona and Eberhardt)


  1. I guess a more purely Greek phrase would be "isotaxon", but that's just a guess.^

  2. i.e., I learned about this paper from Shallice and Cooper's excellent The Organisation of Mind, but felt dumb for not knowing about it before.^

Posted at August 06, 2019 15:17 | permanent link

July 31, 2019

Books to Read While the Algae Grow in Your Fur, July 2019

Attention conservation notice: I have no taste, and no qualifications to say anything about the biography of Karl Marx, the psychology of religion, cultural criticism, the sociology of psychoanalysis, or even, strictly speaking, the history of statistical methods.

Ernest Mandel, The Formation of the Economic Thought of Karl Marx: 1843 to Capital
Mandel was a believer, so this is very much presented as the story of how Uncle Karl came to perceive The Truth, but it's readable and accurate so far as I can tell. Recommended if you have a special (or perverse) interest in this subject. §
William James, The Varieties of Religious Experience [Project Gutenberg e-text]
This is a truly remarkable, and deservedly classic, work, equally at home in psychology, philosophy, and sheer sympathetic human understanding. Even when I continue to think that many of the experiences James describes are just wrong, he makes it easier for me to appreciate why they exist. (This made it easier for me to get over the inevitable "What do you mean 'we', white man?" moments, when James discusses "oriental" religions, especially because he freely admits his information about them is very imperfect.)
One of James's concluding speculations is that just because many religious phenomena have their origins in the subconscious of the human mind, it doesn't mean that they don't also have an extra-human origin:
Let me then propose, as an hypothesis, that whatever it may be on its farther side, the "more" with which in religious experience we feel ourselves connected is on its hither side the subconscious continuation of our conscious life. Starting thus with a recognized psychological fact as our basis, we seem to preserve a contact with "science" which the ordinary theologian lacks. At the same time the theologian's contention that the religious man is moved by an external power is vindicated, for it is one of the peculiarities of invasions from the subconscious region to take on objective appearances, and to suggest to the Subject an external control.
As a matter of pure logic, it is hard to show this isn't true, and, decision-theoretically, James is within his rights to prioritize power over avoiding false positives. But it says something about a difference in --- temperaments? backgrounds? --- that James develops this hypothesis into a suggestion that maybe God interacts with us benevolently because that it "help[s] God in turn to be more effectively faithful to his own greater tasks?", whereas I immediately start thinking "Cthulhu" and "Cordyceps". (Update: or "cicada meth orgy fungus", to borrow a phrase.)
Anyway: it's a great book. §
Phoebe Maltz Bovy, The Perils of "Privilege": Why Injustice Can't Be Solved by Accusing Others of Advantage
This came out a few years ago, to little acclaim and less impact. It is, I think, wiser than the vast majority of our conversation about the concept of "privilege", for or against.
The central point is not that there aren't some on-average advantages and disadvantages attached to ascriptive statuses. It's that making these on-average differences into sources of individualized guilt and shame, occasions for the examination of conscience, professions of repentance, "doing the work", etc. [*], does little to actually change the objectionable social arrangements. If anything, all this is demanding an individual and moralized response to a systemic, institutional issue. If you accept the diagnosis, it's simply at the wrong scale for a prescription, like suggesting that we deal with cholera in the water supply by installing filters in every house, only less effective. (Cf. David Auerbach.)
Indeed, to the extent that fluent privilege-talk becomes a requirement for participating in certain communities, or even in some spheres of public life, it also forms a barrier to such participation, one which will be higher for those without the education and the spare time to acquire that fluency and keep current. That is, mandatory privilege-talk helps entrench the privilege of certain kinds of cultural capital. A cynic, or a functionalist, might suspect that this is the purpose of such talk. I am not a functionalist, and moreover fail to see the feedback or selection mechanisms which would take the place of teleology here. --- I should be clear that Bovy points out the perverse consequence, but doesn't descend to cynicism or functionalism.
Beyond that all, Bovy has her own kind of moral individualism, which is to insist that people are much more than any of their ascriptive statuses, or even than the combination of all their ascriptive statuses, and that in the end the on-average differences between those categories tell us little about the individual. (Though she wouldn't put it this way, she's insisting that the within-group variance is as meaningful as, and perhaps larger than, the between-group variance.) This is of course a debatable moral commitment, but she presents it attractively, and anyway makes no attempt to hide it, or smuggle it in to definitions and premises. This in and of itself puts the book head and shoulders above most of the rest of the literature on these matters, and makes its neglect even more of a shame. §
*: One point which Bovy doesn't much emphasize here, but I think is true, is that the language and practices are very similar to those of certain kinds of religion, those centered on the individual conscience, and the consciousness of (original) sin, rather than the community of the faithful. How much of this is an inheritance from those sorts of Protestantism, how much an adaptation to a cultural environment in America deeply shaped by those Protestant traditions, how much an independent re-discovery of a certain way of being human, and how much merely in the eye of the beholder (as I've said before, we secular materialists love to accuse each other of being priests in disguise) --- these are all nice questions which I suspect are impossible to answer. Nonetheless, it's fascinating to watch aspects of the centuries-old Anglo-American tradition of the fire-and-brimstone revival meeting, like preaching until some sinners break down and tearfully confess their utter and inherent depravity, re-appear in the conference room.
Ernest Gellner, The Psychoanalytic Movement: The Cunning of Unreason
The best, because most sociological, anti-psychoanalytic book of the 1990s, re-read on the occasion of visiting Vienna on holiday. It holds up! §
Richard William Farebrother, Fitting Linear Relationships: A History of the Calculus of Observations 1750--1900 [doi:10.1007/978-1-4612-0545-6]
I suppose I should have appreciated before this that least squares comes out of trying to deal with over-determined systems of equations, i.e., more equations than unknowns, and specifically with the situation where we have more data points than parameters to be estimated. The Ancestors worked out an incredibly amount of the theory of linear models on that basis --- and then kept working it out, because work kept being forgotten, or being neglected, for decades at a time. The book is deliberately written for those already familiar with modern statistics, but it's remarkably interesting if you are, and have any historical curiosity. §
Spencer Ellsworth, Starfire: A Red Peace
Mind candy space opera: Suppose we took Star Wars, filed down the serial numbers, and were rather more realistic about how much a guerilla movement ruthless enough to succeed Rebel Alliance would respect human rights. Enjoyable enough that I will probably track down sequels. §
Bill Mantlo, Jackson Guice, Geof Isherwood and Colleen Doran, Swords of the Swashbucklers
Marc Guggenheim and Andrea Mutti, Swashbucklers: The Saga Continues
Mike Carey and Peter Gross, The Highest House
Patrick Kindlon and Maria Llovet, There's Nothing There
Caitlin Kittredge and Roberta Ingranata, Witchblade 1, 2, 3
Warren Ellis and Jason Howard, Cemetary Beach
Joe Harris and Megan Hutchinson, Rockstars: Nativity in Blacklight
Kurtis J. Wiebe, Roc Upchurch, Stejepan Sejic &c., Rat Queens, 1: Sass and Sorcery and 2: Far Reaching Tentacles of N'rygoth
Comic-book mind candy, assorted flavors. I most enjoyed The Highest House, and would very much like to read a sequel, but they're all fun. (Also, the writers and artists of the continuation of Swashbucklers deserve some kind of award for re-creating the style of the original, despite a lapse of decades. It's not their fault a continuation makes no sense...) (The writer and artist of the Witchblade reboot likewise deserve an award for not re-creating the cheesecake art and nonsensical plots of the original series.) §
Ellis Peters, The Leper of St. Giles, The Virgin in the Ice, The Sanctuary Sparrow, The Devil's Novice
Mind candy historical mysteries, re-visiting childhood favorites department. Cadfael may be too nice and enlightened to really be a plausible period character --- he sometimes seems like he'd be more at home in the mid-20th-century Church of England than the 12th century Benedictine Order --- but these are still extremely fun. §

Books to Read While the Algae Grow in Your Fur; Philosophy; Minds, Brains, and Neurons; Pleasures of Detection, Portraits of Crime; Scientifiction and Fantastica; The Progressive Forces; Tales of Our Ancestors; Writing for Antiquity; Psychoceramics and Psychoceramica; Commit a Social Science; The Dismal Science; Enigmas of Chance

Posted at July 31, 2019 23:59 | permanent link

June 30, 2019

Books to Read While the Algae Grow in Your Fur, June 2019

Attention conservation notice: I have no taste, and no qualifications to say anything about European history.

Kij Johnson, The River Bank: A Sequel to Kenneth Grahame's The Wind in the Willows
There is no way a sequel like this should succeed, but it does. This is the second book I've read by Johnson where she takes the setting of beloved classics, goes "Actually, there could be female characters!", and makes it into new art that continues the pleasures of the original. This is impressive and makes me want to track down her non-derivative work. (There is also an unhealthy part of me which wants her to write a mash-up of this book and the other one.) §
Simon Winder, Danubia: A Personal History of Habsburg Europe
Combination popular history and travelogue. Lively, and I found Winder's narrative persona congenial; it might be unbearable if you don't. §
Elizabeth Hand, Waking the Moon
Mind candy, but remarkably good. There's late-adolescent campus drama recollected in midlife futility, (actual) punk rock, not one but two ancient secret societies, convincingly creepy magic, and an apocalypse presided over, in nearly equal measure, by Robert Graves, Carlo Ginzburg, Marija Gimbiutas, and Stephen King. It ought to be a beloved genre classic. §
Phil Rickman, To Dream of the Dead
Mind candy occult-ish mystery, the umpteenth in the Merrily Watkins series. Honestly I enjoyed it a bit less than previous installments, though whether that was due to a decline in quality, series fatigue, or simply not being in quite the right mood when reading is hard to say. §
Wendy Trusler and Carol Devine, The Antarctic Book of Cooking and Cleaning: A Polar Journey
In which a bunch of Canadian artists travel to Antarctica to clean up a Russian research base, and cook. It works much better as a book than I'm making it sounds, not least because of the excellent photography by Sandy Nicholson. I have not tried out any of the recipes, however, so I pass no judgment on it as a cookbook. (The account of how much better the food was at the Italian research base makes me proud of my mother's country.) §
Linda Nagata, Edges
Nagata's far-future, not-quite-human space opera in great form. This is, strictly, a sequel to her superb Vast, where her surviving characters set out to explore the worlds left open at the end of that book. But one could, I think, jump in here with pleasure and without confusion. §
--- Sequel.
Auston Habershaw, The Far Far Better Thing
Mind candy: conclusion, and climax, to the series of fantasy caper novels where a con artist deals with magical operant conditioning and increasingly catastrophic success. I enjoyed these a lot and will certainly read other stuff by Habershaw. §

Books to Read While the Algae Grow in Your Fur; Scientifiction and Fantastica; Writing for Antiquity; Pleasures of Detection, Portraits of Crime

Posted at June 30, 2019 23:59 | permanent link

May 31, 2019

Books to Read While the Algae Grow in Your Fur, May 2019

Attention conservation notice: I have no taste, and no qualifications to opine on international political economy and the global financial crises of 2008--, social theory, the history of the Roman Empire, or even the history of statistics. Also, I seem to have done a lot of re-reading this month.

Linda Nagata, Vast
Science fiction, rising above the level of mind candy. I read this twenty years ago, and re-read it this spring because the sequel has, at last, come out. It's just as good as I recalled at conveying the sense of wonder and desolation, the scale and age and strangeness of the universe. What my memory hadn't retained was how Nagata combines both an unsparing, utterly unsentimental narration with many genuinely affecting --- I hesitate to say "human" --- experiences. (That last might be because I am now middle aged, rather than in the prolonged adolescence of graduate school, and have more basis on which to relate to those moments.) Also, the moments of horror are a lot more effectively horrifying than I recalled. But if I try to go further in this line I will merely repeat what Henry said, only less eloquently. I will just say that this deserves to be a classic of science fiction, and that if you like well-written hard (*) SF, you owe it to yourself to read this. §
*: As for the hardness of the SF, Nagata doesn't play any tricks with special relativity; the closest she comes is a slower-than-light drive that effectively tilts gravity locally. (This would of course have interesting general-relativistic implications.) Drexler-style molecular nanotechnology and mind-uploading are big parts of the book, and there are of course disputes over whether those are scientifically viable, but I am inclined to accept them as "very difficult but not flat-out impossible". This makes the book harder SF than pretty much all of Niven and a good deal of Egan.
While on this subject: Henry describes Vast's "philosopher cells" as "cellular automata turned lethal". I am prepared to go further --- I'm pretty sure Nagata was directly inspired by popular accounts (perhaps in Levy's Artificial Life, or Poundstone's [also-ought-to-be-a-classic] Recursive Universe) of cellular automata as distributed, self-reproducing systems. Indeed, some aspects of her depictions of Lot's attempts to sway the philosopher cells make me think that she played around with CA simulators. On the other hand, I think her depictions of evolutionary design derive from Drexler's Engines of Creation, rather than, say, SFI's Evolving Cellular Automata Project or even John Holland.
Robyn Bennis, The Devil's Guide to Managing Difficulty People
Mind candy: contemporary comic fantasy, featuring central Florida, Boston, and Hell. (Obvious jokes are obvious, and made in the book.) §
Judy L. Klein, Statistical Visions in Time: A History of Time Series Analysis, 1662--1938
While it's 20 years old now, I'm not aware of anything which can really replace or even complement it as a history of the development of time series up to the self-conscious introduction of the ideas of stationary stochastic processes and the Wold decomposition. I recommend it unreservedly for anyone seriously interested in time series analysis.
There are two parts. Part I looks at the roots of common time series techniques in non-scientific mathematical practice, especially in business and finance. This includes things like differencing series; using index numbers and looking at relative changes; moving averages; transposing series into "cycle time" and averaging to extract typical seasonal (or longer-term) patterns; etc. In each case, Klein documents a progression from "commercial arithmetic" or "political arithmetic" to, gradually, the use of these techniques for scientific investigation. (There are some demi-Marxist hints here about social structure controlling what people are able to perceive. Klein does not follow up on these hints, which is just as well.)
Part II traces the path through which statistical and probabilistic concepts which were originally developed for looking at cross-sections through a population at one time, such as probability distributions (especially the Gaussian distribution), correlation, and regression eventually became the tools used to relate successive values within a single time series, with no obvious population in sight. Klein succeeds in making this seem strange, which is a real and important accomplishment. I do not think it's necessarily quite as weird as she'd make it out to be, at least when the series is statistically stationary, because then it's essentially licensed by ergodicity. That said, her core complaint is that to get to a stationary process, we use all the tricks from Part I, which lack the sound mathematical basis that (on her telling) the Russians like Markov, Khinchin and Kolmogorov gave to stationary processes, and in doing so we may end up discarding what's most interesting in the data. §
*: I do find it a little strange that her account of the development of stochastic processes says almost nothing about physics (as opposed to meteorology). There's a bit about Maxwell and Boltzmann's ideas of statistical mechanics and how they were influenced by Quetelet, and there's mention of Einstein and Smoluchowski, but no recognition of how they described Brownian motion as a stochastic process, nor any mention of Langevin or the Ehrenfests, and I think Wiener is only mentioned once (in a quotation), the ideas of ergodic theory aren't discussed, etc. One could of course argue about how much these fed in to the development of time series analysis in statistics and economics (Klein's main interest), but I think even there there's a link, via the influence on Khinchin and Kolmogorov (who were certainly very aware of all this). Cf. von Plato's Creating Modern Probability (which I really ought to finish and review one of these years).
Brian Daley, The Doomfollowers of Coramonde
Mind candy: 1970s-vintage secondary-world epic fantasy, which is also a portal fantasy with a US Army armored personnel carrier sorcerously detached from duty in Vietnam. It's enjoyable in its own terms, but three things strike me about it. First, all of the characters have agency --- the inhabitants of the fantasy world don't just react to the Americans who come through the portal, they pursue their own lives and agendas. Second, while the female characters do have agency, wow do we hear an awful lot about their looks. Third, this is incredibly compressed by present standards --- there are multiple conceits in here which would each inspire full trilogies (or longer series) in modern publishing. (I have read such series with enjoyment.)
Picked up because I liked Daley's science fiction as a teenager, and was curious when I ran across this and its sequel (which I'll probably read). §
Tanya Huff, The Better Part of Valor
Mind candy: military SF, space marines, all-commissioned-officers-are-idiots variety. §
James J. O'Donnell, The Ruin of the Roman Empire: A New History
This is intensely focused on the period from Theodoric (presented as a basically ordinary Roman emperor of Italy, Gaul and the Balkans) through Justinian (the villain of the piece, who dooms the Roman world by attempting to re-unify it) to Pope Gregory the Great (presented as the last consul of the city of Rome). As my parentheticals indicate, O'Donnell has some unusual notions, which he does not hesitate to push very strongly. (These include what sound to me like some very odd judgments about what would constitute geographically natural political territories; explicating the implied causal theories here would be... curious.) He doesn't end up convincing me that everything can be blamed on Justinian and his court, but it's still a well-written and provocative look at a fascinating historical epoch. §
Ernest Gellner, Contemporary Thought and Politics
A collection of Gellner's essays from the 1950s, 1960s and early 1970s. I first read it in 1997 as part of my rush through everything he'd written (after having my mind blown by Nations and Nationalism). Lucking across a used copy, I enjoyed the re-read: Gellner's acerbic wit, playful style, acuity, and characteristic themes are all on good display here, as he touches on student revolt, the Prague Spring, the idea of progress, the relationship between the scale of social integration and nationalism, ideas about the philosophy of history and of social science, how the social organization of Berber tribes illuminates international relations, and so on. But the targets of his writing are sufficiently far in the past, by this point, that I can only recommend it for Gellner completists. (I am one.) If you are not already a committed Gellnerian, go read Nations and Nationalism, or Plough, Sword and Book. §
Goran Peskir, From Uniform Laws of Large Numbers to Uniform Ergodic Theorems (University of Aarhus Department of Mathematics Lecture Notes Series, vol. 66; 2000) [PDF reprint via Prof. Peskir]
This is an advanced monograph for readers who are comfortable with measure-theoretic probability, and ideally some exposure to at least one of uniform laws of large numbers (as in Vapnik-Chervonenkis theory or statistical learning theory), empirical process theory, or the ergodic theory of stochastic processes and dynamical systems. So I won't be very expository in this brief notice.
The book begins with reminders about how we prove laws of large numbers, how uniform laws of large numbers work and how we prove them, and ergodic theory, especially the way we can go back and forth between stochastic-process and dynamical-systems descriptions, and the classic ergodic theorems. The book's main chapters then each cover three ways of extending ergodic theorems to uniform ergodicity, i.e., to ergodic theorems which hold uniformly over all functions in some class:
  1. A very abstract condition based on metric entropy for dynamical systems (and consequently for ergodic processes);
  2. A Vapnik-Chervonenkis condition for beta-mixing (absolutely regular) stochastic processes;
  3. A Fourier-spectral condition for weakly stationary processes.
Approach (2) is now fairly common, following Yu (1994), though Peskir can legitimately claim to have been a pioneer. (His references are very good, up to the time of writing.) Approach (1) was not one I'd seen worked out in quite this way, though it's closely related to work by van Handel (2013). Approach (3) was entirely new to me, and very intriguing.
While there is a lot of repetition of definitions, theorem statements, etc., the line-by-line writing is fine, and the proofs are easy to follow. I'd been meaning to read this since 2003 or 2004, and kept putting it off; this was my loss. If you're seriously interested in uniform convergence and/or statistical learning theory for stochastic processes, this is very worthwhile. §
Dorothy Sayers, Whose Body?; Clouds of Witness; The Unpleasantness at the Bellona Club; Unnatural Death; Strong Poison; The Five Red Herrings; Have His Carcase
I was introduced to Sayers's mystery novels as a boy by my mother. Re-reading these first seven in a burst, they're still great. They helped define what detective stories could be, and, almost a century later, what they too rarely are. §
Adam Tooze, Crashed: How a Decade of Financial Crises Changed the World
This is a great history of what lead up to the 2008 financial crisis, and its effects down, basically, to the time of writing. What makes it so good is that Tooze has a mastery of the material on, it seems, every possible scale. Whether he is writing about the mechanics of all kinds of financial markets and institutions, the personalities and interactions of crucial decision makers, broad climates of opinion, geopolitical rivalries or low-frequency economic trends, he is full of judiciously-chosen details, lucidly explained, and is clear on the inter-relations. (He is also accurate about areas where I have independent knowledge.) Reading him is such a pleasure that it sometimes was hard for me to take in his larger message, which is that the world went through an entirely-preventable disaster, and only managed to avoid an even worse catastrophe because of luck, dubiously-legitimate actions by unaccountable bureaucrats, and lingering sentimental attachment to institutions and alliances which have become hollowed out since the end of the Cold War. The fact that America and the US government are still essential to the global economy, and what there is of a global polity, but that our internal politics are so broken we have to hope that the Fed will do what our elected leaders can't or won't, is a running theme. (And of course the Fed doesn't even have the representative agent's welfare in view.) The horrid repercussions of these disasters, and the just-barely-enough measures to counter them, have left us in a position where the next disaster will be even harder to deal with --- and it will come. §

Books to Read While the Algae Grow in Your Fur; Scientifiction and Fantastica; Pleasures of Detection, Portraits of Crime; Writing for Antiquity; Enigmas of Chance; The Dismal Science; Philosophy; Commit a Social Science; The Continuing Crises; Data Over Space and Time

Posted at May 31, 2019 23:59 | permanent link

April 30, 2019

Books to Read While the Algae Grow in Your Fur, April 2019

Attention conservation notice: I have no taste, and no qualifications to opine on income policy, the history of ideas, or even conspiracy theories.

Jane Langton, The Transcendental Murder and Dark Nantucket Noon
Favorite mystery novels of my youth, re-read after a lapse of many years with great delight. The device, with Langton's mystery novels, is that the characters get caught up in a setting or institution of high-cultural import, and those artifacts are themselves woven, intelligently and sensitively, into the story. Often, then, these are places lingering over past glories, the preservation of which may be part of the plot. (Here the two foci are, respectively, Concord and the New England Transcendentalists, and Nantucket and Moby Dick.) Like many great mystery novels, these are portraits of social setting as much as stories of cleverness and murder. (The gap between the assumed customs of 1963's The Transcendental Murder, the first book in Langton's series, and even the 1980s when I first read it, let alone today, is in retrospect startling, but quite went over my head as a boy.) Highly recommended to any mystery lover who doesn't require too much gore. §
Robert Pinsky, At the Foundling Hospital
Excellent poems, as usual. Pinsky will for me always be the author of "The Figured Wheel", and there are some here in that vein (e.g., "The Foundling Tokens", from which the title comes), but also more elegaic ones. I will permit myself to quote one of the shorter poems in its entirety; "The Robots" would be a bit too predictable for this blog, so let's try "Genesis":
Where was the kiln, what was the clay? What drove the wheel that turned the vessel?

Who started the engine so late at night?
Which was the highway across the hills?

Why did the animal turn on its keeper?
How did the preachers forge the bells?

I drank the shadows, I studied the shell.
I heard the rain and I took the wheel.

(Thanks to Jan Johnson for my copy.) §
David Wootton, Power, Pleasure, and Profit: Insatiable Appetites from Machiavelli to Madison
Modern social and political thought tends to start from the view point of individuals driven by potentially boundless desires for more, whether more stuff, more fun, or more power. (Hence part of Wootton's title.) This raises the intellectual problem of how to form such unpromising brutes into a society. Turned around, if you're confident of your answer to this question, it suggests all kinds of possibilities for social engineering; that's why Wootton ends with James Madison and the Federalist Papers.
Even people who aren't really comfortable with some of the places this set of ideas leads to find it hard to get away from. This is Wootton's historical account of where that picture came from, and how it developed. It's interesting, well-told, and full of absorbing information (*) and provocative arguments, but necessarily inconclusive. §
*: The detail which most blew my mind was about how Christians used to interpret the parable of the Good Samartian.
Anna Merlan, Republic of Lies: American Conspiracy Theorists and Their Surprising Rise to Power
Mostly, this is first-hand reportage on a bunch of different conspiracy theorists, or conspiracist communities. These parts are well-written and engaging journalism, as sympathetic to Merlan's subjects as they warrant, and valuable source material. There are some gestures at broader historical perspectives, which are OK but not special if you've read a lot about conspiracists. (To be fair, I don't think Merlan is claiming originality for these.) There are also some concluding perspectives about the meaning of conspiracy theorizing and its theorists, which I think are actually substantively pretty close to Hofstadter's "The Paranoid Style in American Politics", though with just enough change in tone and language that the comparison would irritate both Merlan and (the ghost of) Hofstadter.
Finally, the "surprising rise to power" bit means, of course, Trump. He is, as we all know, very free with tossing out claims of conspiracies --- climate change is a Chinese hoax, "the deep state", etc. --- but it's hard to see him as a conspiracy theorist, because he just doesn't have the attention span to work out a theory. Trump has supporters who are very in to elaborating conspiracy theories, most spectacularly QAnon, but it's not clear how much of QAnon is serious and how much is an alternate-realty role-playing game governed by a This Is Not a Game aesthetic. (Or, maybe better yet: it's not clear how many QAnon-followers actually treat it as real, in the pragmatic sense that their beliefs make a difference to their behavior, and how many are effectively treating it as an ARG.) §
Edited to add, August 2021: It's still not clear to me how many QAnonists really take it seriously, but clearly more than I hoped.
Disclaimer: I got an advanced reading copy of this book (obviously this review is a bit late...), but I've got no stake in the book's success.
S. A. Chakraborty, The City of Brass
Mind candy historical fantasy: magical-dynastic intrigue among the djinn of the early 1800s, complicated by a Lost Heir being a small-time con-artist from Cairo. It's great and I want to see where Chakraborty is taking this. — Sequel. §
Annie Lowrey, Give People Money: How a Universal Basic Income Would End Poverty, Revolutionize Work, and Remake the World
Lowrey is sold (obviously enough from her sub-title), but well-informed and not monomaniacal. She lays out the case for basic incomes fairly and lucidly, with reference to such social science as we have, and honesty about the limitations. If you feel like you only have it in you to read one thing about basic incomes, this is a very good choice. As a market socialist, I am very sympathetic to the basic-income idea, and have proposed something similar. (Lowrey does not, if I recall correctly, consider market socialism in this book, even in John Roemer's version.)
There are, however, three crucial issues which Lowrey's book doesn't really confront. These are the level of the basic income, its scale, and its incidence. Since I see little from other advocates about the first two, and nothing about the third, I will indulge myself by elaborating.
The point about the level goes back to basic bargaining theory. Whenever two agents have some potential gains to cooperation, they need to come to agreement about how those gains will be divided. In this bargaining game, the advantage goes to the agent which will be better off if they don't agree, the agent with the higher "disagreement payoff". If for one party, call them the "boss", the disagreement payoff is "go to the trouble of hiring someone else", but for the other party, the "worker", the disagreement payoff if "starve in the street", well, the bargain is going to favor of the boss. A thousand dollars a month of UBI is (literally, here in Pennsylvania) the poverty line. It would keep body and soul together, it'd improve workers' bargaining positions, but the gate to the kingdom of freedom this is not.
Even then: the US national income per capita is only about 64,000 dollars. So a poverty-level UBI would mean about a sixth of the economy would have to be funneled through this one program. It's not inconceivable, but it'd be about five times the budget of the entire US military and national-security complex, more than twice Social Security, etc. And there's no way all existing social-insurance and poor-relief programs could be eliminated in its favor, not without horrid effects.
Now, Lowery does grapple somewhat with both of these, basically admitting the difficulty but saying moves in the direction of a UBI are worth making. The point which I don't think she really addresses, and I don't recall other advocates addressing, is incidence, i.e., who will actually end up with the money? Put bluntly: why wouldn't every slum-lord in America raise their rent by $1000 a month the day after $1000 monthly UBI is passed? Of course if the land-lords, grocery and convenience stores, used car dealers, gas stations, day care centers, etc., which supply the necessities of low-income life in America all try to grab the whole amount of the UBI, there won't be enough to share, so maybe rents only go up (say) $200 a month. But it's very plausible that those offering low-end goods and services with fairly inelastic demand would just drive up their prices, if they know their customers have that extra money. (Note that direct public provision of certain goods doesn't have this issue.) "Plausible", but not certain; maybe someone has gone through the econometric exercise of trying to work this out, but the uncertainty would necessarily be very large. §

Books to Read While the Algae Grow in Your Fur; Psychoceramica; Scientifiction and Fantastica; The Beloved Republic; Writing for Antiquity; The Great Transformation; Pleasures of Detection, Portraits of Crime; The Dismal Science; The Progressive Forces

Posted at April 30, 2019 23:59 | permanent link

March 31, 2019

Books to Read While the Algae Grow in Your Fur, March 2019

Attention conservation notice: I have no taste, and no qualifications to opine on intellectual history or social philosophy.

Catherynne M. Valente, Space Opera
Mind candy: in case you want a Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy pastiche that is (a) better-written than the original, and (b) based on Eurovision.
Marjorie M. Liu and Sana Takeda, Monstress, vol. 2: The Blood
Mind candy orientalist fantasy (previously).
Helena Rosenblatt, The Lost History of Liberalism: From Ancient Rome to the Twenty-First Century
An interesting history of what the term "liberalism" has meant, focusing on the birth of the expression in France in the aftermath of the revolution, but also moving on from there, primarily in 19th and 20th century Europe. §
Kwame Anthony Appiah, The Lies that Bind: Rethinking Identity
Humane, sensible, and utterly unlikely to persuade anyone of anything. (But still worth reading.) This essay is an excerpt, and representative of style and content.

Books to Read While the Algae Grow in Your Fur; The Progressive Forces; Scientifiction and Fantastica; Writing for Antiquity; Philosophy

Posted at March 31, 2019 23:59 | permanent link

February 28, 2019

Books to Read While the Algae Grow in Your Fur, February 2019

Attention conservation notice: I have no taste, and no qualifications to opine on Roman history, or even on demography.

Juha Alho and Bruce D. Spencer, Statistical Demography and Forecasting
A thorough introduction to the leading concepts, issues and methods of demography for an audience of statisticians, interested in what our cousins are up to, why they do it that way, and how they might make more use of conventional statistical notions about modeling, inference and uncertainty. (Alho has a particular interest in the financing of public pensions, which shows up in a bunch of the examples.) Statistical concepts are reviewed as needed, but the intended reader is plainly familiar with most of these to start, so I doubt it would work as well for the stats-curious demographer.
If I ever get to teach the space-and-time course again, I will mine this shamelessly for examples.
Brian Lee O'Malley, Snotgirl: Green Hair Don't Care and California Screaming
Mike Mignola, Hellboy in Hell: The Descent
Philippe Thirault et al., Miss: Better Living Through Crime, 1: Bloody Manhattan
Saladin Ahmed et al., Abbott
Comic-book mind-candy, assorted.
Dubravka Ugresic, Fox
Meta-fiction, cultural essay, tragedy, literary anecdote spun out into novelettes... This was my first Ugresic, but it won't be my last.
James H. Matis and Thomas R. Kiffe, Stochastic Population Models: A Compartmental Perspective
Most of this is actually given over to one-compartment birth-death, or birth-death-migration, processes, though when they do get around to multi-compartment processes, the treatment is good. There's no systematic account of statistical inference for these models, though I appreciated the ad hoc effort to connect them to empirical data.
Ellis Peters, One Corpse Too Many, Monk's Hood, St. Peter's Fair, The Devil's Novice
Mind candy: classic medieval mysteries. Having read these as a boy, I'm very relieved that they have not been visited by the Suck Fairy.
Edward Gibbon, The Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire
I started this in August of last year, with no previous experience with Gibbon, but with a credit for an audio book* and the prospect of a lot driving back and forth between Pittsburgh and DC. I have now spent 100 hours on the Pennsylvania Turnpike being taken from the age of Trajan and Marcus Aurelius to the final fall of Constantinople in 1453, and the ruins of Rome in the age of the Renaissance Papacy. There are obviously a million ways in which it's been superseded as history, but it's still a magnificent achievement of scholarship, and an incredible work of literature.
Some obvious things: Gibbon was sexist, racist, and anti-Jewish (it'd be a bit anachronistic to call him anti-Semitic). He poses as an orthodox English Protestant who regards the inexplicable parts of Christianity (e.g., the Trinity and the Incarnation) as mysteries beyond reason --- but clearly he thinks those parts are really nonsense. (This explains, I think, his surprising-to-me sympathy for Islam.) But he is also a good enough historian to admit to facts which fly in the face of his prejudices, like courageous, just and manly "orientals" --- though not good enough to revise his views. (Likewise, the passages which contain gratuitous swipes at the intellectual capacities of "Negroes" are also the ones which call the slave trade of his time a moral disgrace.)
Related to this ambiguity, I think, is a certain inconsistency in his Eurocentrism and parochialism. Sometimes he talks about "the world" to mean western-Europe-and-the-Mediterranean basin; sometimes he knows fully well that Rome at its height was always balanced by Persia, and writes intelligently about how China's relations with its nomadic neighbors ultimately affected Rome. Sometimes "barbarian" is used in the Greek way, to include everyone who wasn't a Hellene, and sometimes he admits the Persians, Chinese, Indians, etc., to the company of civilized nations. He trembles on the verge of a properly global perspective, and I wish he'd made it there.
Rhetorically, his use of irony is clearly modeled on Tacitus. But where Tacitus is highly compressed, Gibbon is not so much prolix as leisurely and expansive. The result is a layering of irony, both within sentences and across paragraphs. Tacitus gives us lapidary expressions like "We make a desert and call it peace", or "conspicuous by their absence"; Gibbon gives us passages:
The policy of the emperors and the senate, as far as it concerned religion, was happily seconded by the reflections of the enlightened, and by the habits of the superstitious, part of their subjects. The various modes of worship, which prevailed in the Roman world, were all considered by the people, as equally true; by the philosopher, as equally false; and by the magistrate, as equally useful.
(This is succeeded by paragraphs on "The superstition of the people", the "philosphers ... deduc[ing] their morals from the nature of man", and the role of religion in "the Roman councils".) Or, again:
A victorious line of march had been prolonged above a thousand miles from the rock of Gibraltar to the banks of the Loire; the repetition of an equal space would have carried the Saracens to the confines of Poland and the Highlands of Scotland; the Rhine is not more impassable than the Nile or Euphrates, and the Arabian fleet might have sailed without a naval combat into the mouth of the Thames. Perhaps the interpretation of the Koran would now be taught in the schools of Oxford, and her pulpits might demonstrate to a circumcised people the sanctity and truth of the revelation of Mahomet.
(The latter clearly inspired Gellner.)
--- In George Steiner's In Bluebeard's Castle, he writes about how some novelists and historians, by their "many-branched coherence of design", "build a great house of language for memory and conjecture to inhabit". What strikes me about Gibbon is how he has two such houses. One of them is fourteen centuries which are his actual subject, depicted as an eon of decay and disaster, but also full of colorful, if generally appalling, incident. The other, constantly present by implication and contrast, is the classical Rome of the Republic, and classical Greece, especially Periclean Athens. He might put forth the age of the Antonines as the happiest and most prosperous period of humanity, but it's clear that his heart is with those earlier, and to him brighter, times. I half suspect that one of his aims was to narrate the fall of Rome, as though told by a Roman of an earlier time; certainly he carries out the affectation of using classical place-names long past the period of their relevance.
*: The reading by Charlton Griffin was, for the most part, quite good, but there was at least one place where a later editor's footnote accusing Gibbon of anti-Christian bias crept into the text and was narrated.

Books to Read While the Algae Grow in Your Fur; Scientifiction and Fantastica; Pleasures of Detection, Portraits of Crime; Tales of Our Ancestors; Writing for Antiquity; Enigmas of Chance; The Natural Science of the Human Species; Commit a Social Science

Posted at February 28, 2019 23:59 | permanent link

February 05, 2019

"Causal inference in social networks: A new hope?" (Friday at the Ann Arbor Statistics Seminar)

Attention conservation notice: Self-promoting notice of a very academic talk, at a university far from you, on a very recondite topic, solving a problem that doesn't concern you under a set of assumptions you don't understand, and wouldn't believe if I explained to you.

I seem to be giving talks again:

"Causal inference in social networks: A new hope?"
Abstract: Latent homophily generally makes it impossible to identify contagion or influence effects from observations on social networks. Sometimes, however, homophily also makes it possible to accurately infer nodes' latent attributes from their position in the larger network. I will lay out some assumptions on the network-growth process under which such inferences are good enough that they enable consistent and asymptotically unbiased estimates of the strength of social influence. Time permitting, I will also discuss the prospects for tracing out the "identification possibility frontier" for social contagion.
Joint work with Edward McFowland III
Time and place: 11:30 am -- 12:30 pm on 8 February 2019, in 411 West Hall, Statistics Department, University of Michigan

--- The underlying paper grows out of an idea that was in my paper with Andrew Thomas on social contagion: latent homophily is the problem with causal inference in social networks, but latent homophily also leads to large-scale structure in networks, and allows us to infer latent attributes from the graph; we call this "community discovery". Some years later, my student Hannah Worrall, in her senior thesis, did an extensive series of simulations showing that controlling for estimated community membership lets us infer the strength of social inference, in regimes where community-discovery is consistent. Some years after that, Ed asked me what I was wanting to work on, but wasn't, so I explained about what seemed to me the difficulties in doing some proper theory about this. As I did so, the difficulties dissolved under Ed's questioning, and the paper followed very naturally. We're now revising in reply to referees (Ed, if you're reading this --- I really am working on it!), which is as pleasant as always. But I am very pleased to have finally made a positive contribution to a problem which has occupied me for many years.

Constant Conjunction Necessary Connexion; Enigmas of Chance; Networks; Self-Centered

Posted at February 05, 2019 21:04 | permanent link

February 03, 2019

On Godzilla and the Nature and Conditions of Cultural Success; or, Shedding the Skin

Attention conservation notice: 1100+ words of Deep Thoughts on a creature-feature monster and cultural selection, from someone with no qualifications to write on either subject. Expresses long-held semi-crank notions; composed while simultaneously reading Morin on diffusion chains and drinking sake; revived over a year after it was drafted because Henry was posting about similar themes, finally posted because I am procrasting finishing a grant proposal celebrating submitting a grant proposal on time.

Godzilla is an outstanding example of large-scale cultural success, and of how successful cultural items become detached from their original meanings.

Godzilla's origins are very much in a particular time and place, namely Japan, recently (if not quite immediately) post-WWII and the national trauma of the atomic bombings and their lingering effects. This is a very particular setting, on the world-historical scale. It is now seven decades in the past, and so increasingly gone from living memory, even for the very long-lived population of Japan.

Against this, Godzilla has been tremendously successful culturally all over the world, over basically the whole time since it appeared. I don't mean that it's made money (thought it has) --- I mean that it has been popular, that people have liked consuming stories (and images and toys and other representations) about it, that they have liked creating such representations, and that they have liked thinking about and with Godzilla.. (In contemporary America, for instance, Godzilla is so successful that the suffix "-zilla" is a morpheme, denoting something like "a destructive, mindlessly-enraged form of an entity".) Necessarily, the vast majority of this success and popularity has been distant in time, space, social structure and cultural context from 1950s Japan. How can these two observations --- the specificity of origins and the generality of success --- be reconciled?

To a disturbing extent, of course, any form of cultural success can be self-reinforcing (cf. Salganik et al.), but there is generally something to the representations which succeed (cf., again, Salganik et al.). But, again, Godzilla is endemic in many contexts remote in space, time and other cultural features from immediately-post-war Japan. So it would seem that whatever makes it successful in those contexts, including here and now as I write this, must be different from what made it successful at its point of origin.

It could be that Godzilla is successful in 1950s Japan and in 2010s USA because it happened to fit two very different but very specific cultural niches --- the trauma of defeat culminating in nuclear war, on the one hand; and (to make something up) a compulsive desire for re-enactments of 9/11 on the other hand. But explaining wide-spread success by a series of particular fits falters as we consider all the many other social contexts in which Godzilla has been popular. Maybe it happened, by chance, to appeal narrowly to one new context, but two? three? ten?

An alternative is that Godzilla has managed to spread because it appeals to tastes which are not very context-specific, but on the contrary very widely distributed, if not necessarily constant and universal. In the case of Godzilla, we have a monster who breaks big things and breathes fire: an object of thought, in other words, enduringly relevant to crude interests in predators, in destruction, and in fire. Since those interests are very common across all social contexts, something which appeals to them has a very good source of "pull".

This is not to say that Godzilla wasn't, originally, all about being the only country ever atom-bombed into submission. But it is to say that we can draw a useful distinction between the meanings successful cultural products had originally and those attached to them as they diffuse. It is analogous to the distinction the old philosophy of science used to draw between an idea's "context of discovery" and its "context of justification", though that had a normative force I am not aiming at. (For the record, I think that many of the criticisms of the discovery-justification distinction are weak, mis-conceived or just flat wrong, and that it's actually a pretty useful distinction. But that's another story for another time.)

For Godzilla, like many other successful cultural products, the "context of invention" was a very historically-specific confluence of issues, concerns and predecessors. But the "context of diffusion" was that it could appeal to vastly more generic tastes, and make use of vastly more generic opportunities. These are still somewhat historically-specific (e.g., no motion-picture technology, no Godzilla), but much less so. I am even tempted to formulate a generalization: the more diffused a cultural product is, in space or time or social position, the less its appeal owes to historically-specific contexts, and the more it owes to forces which are nearly a-historical and constant.

What holds me back from declaring cultural diffusion to be a low-pass filter is that it is, in fact, logically possible for a cultural product to succeed in many contexts because it seems to be narrowly tailored to them all. What's needed, as a kind of meta-ingredient, is for the cultural product to be suggestively ambiguous. It is ambiguity which allows very different people to find in the same artifact the divergent but specific meanings they seek; but it also has to somehow suggest to many people that there is a specific, compelling meaning to be found in it. When we consider cultural items which have endured for a very long time, like some sacred texts or other works of literature, then I suspect we are seeing representations which have been strongly selected for suggestive ambiguity.

It is a cliche of literary criticism that each generation gives its own interpretation of these great works. It is somewhat less of a cliche, though equally true, that every generation finds a reason to interpret them. Pace Derrida and his kin, I don't think that every text or artifact is equally amenable to this sort of re-interpretation and re-working. (Though that notion may have seemed more plausible to literary scholars who were most familiar with a canon of books inadvertently selected, in part, for just such ambiguity.) There are levels of ambiguity, and some things are just too straightforward to succeed this way1. It is also plainly not enough just to be ambiguous, since ambiguous representations are very common, and usually dismal failures at propagating themselves. The text or artifact must also possess features which suggest that there is an important meaning to be found in it2. What those features are, in terms of rhetorical or other sorts of design, is a nice question, though perhaps not beyond all conjecture. (I strongly suspect Gene Wolfe of deliberately aiming for such effects.) Something keeps the great works alive over time and space, saving them from being as dead as Gilgamesh, of merely historical interest. Because they are interpreted so variously, they can't be surviving because any one of their interpretations is the right one, conveying a compelling message that assures human interest. Rather, works outlast ages precisely because they simultaneously promise and lack such messages. This quality of suggestive ambiguity could, of course, also contribute to academic and intellectual success --- making it seem like you have something important to say, while leaving what that thing is open to debate, is one route to keeping people talking about you for a long time.

... or so I think in my more extreme moments. In another mood, I might try to poke holes in my own arguments. As for Godzilla, I suspect it's too early to tell whether it possesses this quality of suggestive ambiguity, but my hunch is that this dragon is not a shape-shifter.


  1. I seem to recall that Umberto Eco once, to make this point, had a parable about employing a screw-driver to clean out your ears. But if my memory has not invented this, I cannot now find the passage. — Edited to add, November 2021: A reader helpfully points that Eco makes this point on pp. 145--146 of Interpretation and Over-Interpretation (Cambridge U.P., 1992), riffing on something Richard Rorty wrote on p. 102 of the same volume. I am relieved that this is not one of those instances where my memory twisted the story almost out of recognition.^

  2. Though, again, we should be aware of the self-reinforcing nature of cultural success, the way that something might seem important to re-interpret or re-work in part because it is already widely known.^

The Collective Use and Evolution of Concepts; Scientifiction and Fantastica; Modest Proposals

Posted at February 03, 2019 15:08 | permanent link

January 31, 2019

Books to Read While the Algae Grow in Your Fur, January 2019

Attention conservation notice: I have no taste. I also have no qualifications to discuss the history of millenarianism, or really even statistical graphics.

Bärbel Finkenstädt, Leonhard Held and Valerie Isham (eds.), Statistical Methods for Spatio-Temporal Systems
This is an edited volume arising from a conference, with all the virtues and vices that implies. (Several chapters have references to the papers which first published the work expounded in other chapters.) I will, accordingly, review the chapters in order.
Chapter 1: "Spatio-Temporal Point Processes: Methods and Applications" (Diggle). Mostly a precis of case studies from Diggle's (deservedly standard) books on the subject, which I will get around to finishing one of these years.
Chapter 2: "Spatio-Temporal Modelling --- with a View to Biological Growth" (Vedel Jensen, Jónsdóttir, Schmiegel, and Barndorff-Nielsen). This chapter divides into two parts. One is about "ambit stochastics". In a random field $Z(s,t)$, the "ambit" of the space-time point-instant $(s,t)$ is the set of point-instants $(q,u)$, $u < t$, where $Z(q,u)$ is (causally) relevant to $Z(r,t)$. (This is what, in my own work, I've called the "past cone" of $(s,t)$.) Having a regular geometry for the ambit imposes some tractable restrictions on random fields, which are explored here for models of growth-without-decay. The second part of this chapter will only make sense to hardened habituees of Levy processes, and perhaps not even to all of them.
Chapter 3: "Using Transforms to Analyze Space-Time Processes" (Fuentes, Guttorp, and Sampson): A very nice survey of Fourier transform, wavelet transform, and PCA approaches to decomposing spatio-temporal data. There's a good account of some tests for non-stationarity, based on the idea that (essentially) we should get the nearly same transforms for different parts of the data if things really are stationary. (I should think carefully about the assumptions and the implied asymptotic regime here, since the argument makes sense, but it also makes sense that sufficiently slow mean-reversion is indistinguishable from non-stationarity.)
Chapter 4: "Geostatistical Space-Time Models, Stationarity, Seperability, and Full Symmetry" (Gneiting, Genton, and Guttorp): "Geostatistics" here refers to "kriging", or using linear prediction on correlated data. As every schoolchild knows, this boils down to finding the covariance function, $\mathrm{Cov}[Z(s_1, t_1), Z(s_2, t_2)]$. This chapter considers three kinds of symmetry restrictions on the covariance functions: "separability", where $\mathrm{Cov}[Z(s_1, t_1), Z(s_2, t_2)] = C_S(s_1, s_2) C_T(t_1, t_2)$; the weaker notion of "full symmetry", where $\mathrm{Cov}[Z(s_1, t_1), Z(s_2, t_2)] = $\mathrm{Cov}[Z(s_1, t_2), Z(s_2, t_1)]$; and "stationarity", where $\mathrm{Cov}[Z(s_1, t_1), Z(s_2, t_2)] = $\mathrm{Cov}[Z(s_1+q, t_1+h), Z(s_2+q, t_2+h)]$. As the authors explain, while separable covariance functions are often used because of their mathematical tractability, they look really weird; "full symmetry" can do a lot of the same work, at less cost in implausibility.
Chapter 5: "Space-Time Modelling of Rainfall for Continuous Simulations" (Chandler, Isham, Belline, Yang and Northrop): A detailed exposition of two models for rainfall, at different spatio-temporal scales, and how they are both motivated by and connected to data. I appreciate their frankness about things that didn't work, and the difficulties of connecting the different models.
Chapter 6, "A Primer on Space-Time Modeling from a Bayesian Perspective" (Higdon): Here "space-time modeling" means "Gaussian Markov random fields". Does what it says on the label.
All the chapters combine theory with examples --- chapter 2 is perhaps the most mathematically sophisticated one, and also the one where the examples do the least work. The most useful, from my point of view, were Chapters 3 and 4, but that's because I was teaching a class where I did a lot of kriging ad PCA, and (with some regret) no point processes. If you have a professional interest in spatio-temporal statistics, and a fair degree of prior acquaintance, I can recommend this as a useful collection of examples, case studies, and expositions of some detailed topics.
Errata, of a sort: There are supposed to be color plates between pages 142 and 143. Unfortunately, in my copy these are printed in grey, not in color.
Disclaimer: The publisher sent me a copy of this book, but that was part of my fee for reviewing a (different) book proposal for them.
Kieran Healy, Data Visualization: A Practical Introduction
Anyone who has looked at my professional writings will have noticed that my data visualizations are neither fancy nor even attractive, and they never go beyond basic R graphics. This is because I have never learned any other system for statistical visualization. And I've not done that because I'm lazy, and have little visual sense anyway. This book is the best guide I've seen to (1) learning the widely-used, and generally handsome, ggplot library in R, (2) learning the "grammar of graphics" principles on which it is based, and (3) learning the underlying psychological principles which make some graphics better or worse visualizations than others. (This is not to be confused with learning the maxims or even the tacit taste of a particular designer, even one of genius.) The writing is great, the examples are interesting, well-chosen and complete, and the presumptions about how much R, or statistics, you know coming in are minimal. I wish something like this had existed long ago, and I'm tempted, after reading it, to totally re-do the figures in my book. (Aside to my editor: I am not going to totally re-do the figures in my book.) I strongly recommend it, and will be urging it on my graduate students for the foreseeable future.
ObLinkage: The book is online, pretty much.
ObDisclaimer: Kieran and I have been saying good things about each other's blogs since the High Bronze Age of the Internet. But I paid good cash money for my copy, and have no stake in the success of this book.
Anna Lee Huber, Mortal Arts
More historical-mystery mind candy, this time flavored by the (dismal) history of early 19th century psychiatry. (Huber is pretty good, though not perfect, at avoiding anachronistic language, so nobody says "psychiatry" in the novel.) --- Further in the series.
Norman Cohn, The Pursuit of the Millennium: Revolutionary Millenarians and Mystical Anarchists of the Middle Ages
I vividly remember finding a used copy of this in the UW-Madison student bookstore when I began graduate school, in the fall of 1993, and having my mind blown by reading it that fall*. Coming back to it now, I find it still fascinating and convincing, and does an excellent job of tracing millenarian movements among the poor in Latinate Europe from the fall of Rome through the Reformation. (There are a few bits where he gets a bit psychoanalytic, but the first edition was published in 1957.) If I no longer find it mind-blowing, that's in large part because reading it sparked an enduring interest in millenarianism, and so I've long since absorbed what then (you should forgive the expression) came as a revelation.
The most controversial part of the book, I think, is the conclusion, where Cohn makes it very clear that he thinks there is a great deal of similarity, if not actual continuity, between his "revolutionary millenarians and mystical anarchists" and 20th century political extremism, both of the Fascist and the Communist variety. He hesitates --- wisely, I think --- over whether this is just a similarity, or there is an actual thread of historical continuity; but I think his case for the similarity is sound.
*: I was supposed to be having my mind blown by Sakurai. In retrospect, this incident sums up both why I was not a very good graduate student, and why I will never be a great scientist.

Books to Read While the Algae Grow in Your Fur; Enigmas of Chance; Data over Space and Time; Pleasures of Detection, Portraits of Crime; Tales of Our Ancestors; Psychoceramica; Writing for Antiquity Commit a Social Science

Posted at January 31, 2019 23:59 | permanent link

Three-Toed Sloth